ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ЕКОЛОГІЧНИХ РИЗИКІВ КОСМІЧНОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ЯК ДЕТЕРМІНАНТ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ. ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS OF SPACE ACTIVITIES AS A DETERMINANT OF GLOBAL SECURITY
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Date
2021
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Abstract
У статті досліджено екологічні ризики космічної діяльності у забезпеченні концепції Clean Space як складової міжнародної безпеки. Доведено, що техногенне сміття в орбітальному просторі досягло катастрофічних масштабів, що потребує негайних змін із метою сталого розвитку космічної активності. Побудовано класифікацію екологічних ризиків, що виникають в умовах космічної діяльності, за чотирьома групами: за джерелами ризиків, виду орбіт, причинно-наслідкові, за можливостями впливу. Визначено, що за структурою об’єктів космічного сміття за країнами світу станом на лютий 2020 р., найбільшими власниками орбітального сміття, є Росія (СРСР), США та Китай. The paper investigates environmental risks of space activities in ensuring the concept of Clean Space as an integral component of global security. It has been proven that man-made debris in orbital space reached catastrophic proportions which calls upon immediate changes with the purpose of sustainable development of space activities. The work incorporates an elaborated classification of environmental risks that occur in the process of space activities, divided into four groups: by the source of risk, by type of orbit, by cause and effect and by the possibility of influence. It has been determined that countries to have generated the most space debris objects are Russia (the USSR), USA and China. Ukrainian national legislation in the sphere of space activities is currently at the stage of harmonization with international space agencies. Numerous issues remain insufficiently substantiated: improvement of the Technical Regulations for space activities, Procedures of liability insurance for damage inflicted to the space object, since the respective insurance contract must be one of the documents mandatory for fulfilling international obligations of the state with regard to its accountability for any type of national space activities. It has been established that apart from the Kessler effect there also exists a temporality effect – the effect of ”lengthened” time combined with the effect of its acceleration (singularity) – accelerated development of situational changes. This affects the catastrophic state of space debris cluttering in Earth’s orbit since the launch of the first artificial satellite. The paper examines a particular range of risks in accordance with two phases of the technological lifespan of space systems – ‘Operation’ & ‘Utilization’. It is stipulated by the fact that namely in these phases there exists the highest probability of occurrence of major risks of “influence”. Prospects of further research consist in the development of the system for assessment of risks of influence at all phases of the technological lifespan of space systems: ‘Mission analysis/needs definition’; ‘Feasibility’; ‘Preliminary design’; ‘Detailed design’; ‘Qualification & Production’; ‘Operation’; ‘Utilization’.
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екологічний ризик, безпека, ефект темпоральності, космічне сміття, Clean Space, environmental risk, security, temporality effect, space debris, Clean Space